While the previous blog about the EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook fossil fuel predictions doesn’t sound great, there is good news near the end of the report – renewable energy and coal use reductions are having an effect:
“We expect total energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to decrease by 3% in 2023. CO2 emissions from coal decrease 20%, the most relative to 2022, as a result of a notable decline in coal- fired electricity generation. Emissions from petroleum remain relatively unchanged, and emissions from natural gas increase by 1%. Total CO2 emissions in 2024 remain flat, as small increases in petroleum emissions and coal emissions balance a decrease in natural gas emissions.
We forecast the carbon intensity of the economy (total CO2 emissions relative to total energy consumption) will continue its generally declining trend into 2023 and 2024. Carbon intensity will decline by 2% in 2023 and by 1% in 2024. The decline in 2023 comes from both the significant drop in coal emissions and an increase in non-emitting energy consumption. Although overall energy consumption declines by about 1% in 2023, the share of renewable energy in U.S. energy consumption increases from around 13% in 2022 to 14% in 2023. While emissions increase in 2024, U.S. carbon intensity continues to decrease because economic activity increases more than emissions and because the renewable energy share continues to grow, making up 15% of total energy consumption in 2024.”
Companies may want to carefully review the report as they review/revise their climate targets and goals for 2023 and beyond – especially for Scope 2 and 3 emissions.
