Few can match Hall of Fame Yankee catcher Yogi Berra‘s quotability. “Predictions are hard – especially about the future,” he once said (although the quote is also attributed to quantum physicist Niels Bohr). Today, it could be the motto of the International Energy Agency (IEA) as they prepare their latest annual report and revised predictions about the future of fossil fuels. According to Bloomberg:
“For the last few years, climate and energy policymakers have convinced themselves the world was inexorably moving away from fossil fuels. Breaking news: It is not.
… achieving the ambition of net zero by 2050 wasn’t as cast in stone as its backers thought.
Under current policies, ‘oil and natural gas use rise out to 2050,’ according to the IEA draft. Coal consumption does peak in the 2030s, but demand in 2050 would be more than 50% higher than previously expected…”
The article mitigates the gloom-and-doom a bit:
“The Current Policy Scenario isn’t a forecast. It’s a snapshot of what the world may look like in 25 years if nothing changes and governments sit on their hands. In the past, the scenario tended to undercount renewables and favor incumbent sources of energy, such as oil, gas and coal; so if history is a guide, it could be off – perhaps significantly.”
Maybe a scenario isn’t a forecast or prediction, but it is worth considering. When was the last time you reviewed and updated your climate assumptions? Members can use our checklist “Identifying & Updating Climate Risks and Uncertainties“.
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