There’s no shortage of pending climate cases against the oil and gas industry. States, municipalities, and private citizens impacted by severe weather events have been trying for years to land a big verdict. Many compare the litigation to the big tobacco cases of the 80’s and 90’s or more recent opioid litigation that resulted in huge judgments. One trouble climate cases face in going mainstream is causation. Proving that the actions of specific companies resulted in specific harms is made difficult by the nature of climate change. However, that hasn’t stopped Plaintiffs who have continued to advance theories of causation through new climate attribution science. A recent Simmons + Simmons memo discusses this trend, stating:
“A significant trend in 2025 was the continued attempt to advance liability theories based on climate attribution science. If successful, these theories could dramatically expand corporate liability for the effects of climate change. Courts in Germany and England have begun to opine on these theories, with the German courts in particular acknowledging that major emitters can, in principle, be held liable for their contribution to climate-related harm globall[y] [sic].”
Last year, we saw a study outlining an “end-to-end” attribution method claiming to scientifically prove certain emissions are related to certain weather events. We also saw one lawsuit attempt to circumvent this hurdle by using rising insurance rates as a proxy. However, the court system takes time, and these theories are not immediately testable. We’ll see if 2026 holds any major developments for climate attribution science and which, if any, methods hold up in court.
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