Scientists have long warned against exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. Limiting climate change to this threshold would have stopped many of the permanent threats posed by changing weather patterns and sea-level rise. However, a new report from the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) indicates that this scenario is in damage-controlnow an impossibility, making 1.5°C warming inevitable. This puts the world into damage control mode, as we can no longer hope to remain unscathed by climate change. The report notes:
“Scientific assessments (IPCC 2023a; UNEP 2025b) indicate that temporary exceedance of 1.5°C is inevitable under current emissions trajectories and policy settings. Therefore, the challenge confronting policymakers is no longer solely how to avoid exceedance, but rather how to understand, prepare for and navigate a future in which global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. Most importantly, society is now faced with the task of limiting exceedance through unprecedented action, for an overshoot, peak and decline pathway to be possible. In this pathway, the world faces the reality of global temperatures going beyond 1.5°C and collectively working towards limiting a temporary overshoot to well below 2°C so as to still make a decline feasible”
Despite being, to put it lightly, “a bummer,” this is not a reason to lose all hope. Despite global emissions making 1.5°C warming inevitable, the report also states that we can still mitigate the worst impacts. If action is taken swiftly and aggressively, the amount of overshoot can be contained. After containment, we will require years of negative emissions to fully stabilize the climate.
This report has several impacts for companies. First, the inevitability of 1.5°C warming requires us to revisit risk models. Physical risk will manifest, it is now a question of scale. Additionally, companies should prepare for aggressive policy action. While unlikely in the short term, citizens will demand action as climate risks manifest more frequently. Companies should explore and work towards net-zero now, before the policy crunch. The longer we wait, the worse the outcome will be.
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