Carbon credits and offsets are no strangers to controversy. Past projects have come under fire for faulty methodologies and exaggerated claims. A new study adds to the body of research calling the value of carbon credits into question. The study examined evaluations of “avoided deforestation” in REDD+ projects and found the real-world impacts of the projects lacking. The authors write:
“We combine six independent ex post evaluations of avoided deforestation covering 44 REDD+ projects. These evaluations show that most projects reduced deforestation, but that they claimed an aggregate of 10.7 times more avoided deforestation than is justified by independent estimates. This discrepancy is not driven by the choice of forest cover data, but by selection bias in projects’ control areas and modelling approaches. Although recent initiatives that transfer assessment to unconflicted parties and restrict methodological flexibility are critical, they are insufficient.”
Carbon credits remain popular for their versatility and affordability. The study’s authors found that REDD+ projects did have a measurable effect on deforestation; however, far too many credits were issued, diluting their quality. Relying on carbon credits continues to be a gamble. Some companies have even faced greenwashing suits for relying on credits to reach net-zero. Carbon credits have a long way to go before they can be considered completely reliable instruments. For the time being, companies are better off achieving the emissions reductions they can on their own, limiting credit use to hard or impossible-to-abate scenarios. Even then, before purchasing credits, sustainability professionals should do their due diligence and research the project’s methodology.
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